{ "dataset": { "name": "Voucher Tuition Evidence Ledger, 2026", "version": "1.0", "creator": "The School Choice Index Editorial Team", "publisher": "The School Choice Index", "canonical_url": "https://theschoolchoiceindex.com/research/private-school-tuition-increases-after-voucher-expansion/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "row_count": 82, "description": "A harmonized U.S. evidence ledger for private-school tuition, fee, revenue-proxy, and administrative changes associated with voucher, education-savings-account, tax-credit-scholarship, or broader school-choice adoption. It separates causal estimates, model syntheses, descriptive comparisons, historical evidence, and transparent original arithmetic.", "non_pooling_rule": "Rows must not be averaged across designs, units, price bases, periods, or policy scopes." }, "methodology": { "inclusion": [ "Measures K–12 private-school tuition, required fees, price, or a clearly labeled tuition/revenue proxy.", "Connects the observation period to a voucher, ESA, tax-credit scholarship, or broader private-school-choice policy.", "Original producer publication or underlying public data was available.", "Result can be recorded with period, geography, statistic, data source, design, and limitation.", "Original arithmetic can be reproduced from published inputs." ], "evidence_classes": { "A": "Recent quasi-experimental estimate", "B": "Recent multi-state model or synthesis", "C": "Comparative descriptive evidence", "D": "Before-and-after or administrative description", "E": "Earlier or broader policy evidence" }, "interpretation_rules": [ "Do not average unlike evidence rows.", "Do not call a before-and-after result causal.", "Do not treat nominal and real figures as interchangeable.", "Do not treat posted tuition as family net price.", "Keep source organization and publication status visible.", "Label School Choice Index calculations as arithmetic, not regressions." ] }, "evidence_rows": [ { "evidence_id": "NAT-SYN-001", "geography": "United States: 11 treated states vs 34 comparison states", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "One to four years after treatment", "subgroup": "All private schools in study synthesis", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model-based synthesis", "research_design": "Staggered difference-in-differences plus synthetic DID and revenue-based triangulation", "metric": "Authors' synthesized short-run tuition effect", "reported_result": "Universal vouchers probably increased private-school tuition by 5% to 10%.", "estimate_low": "5", "estimate_high": "10", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars in the tuition series", "statistic_basis": "Model-based synthesis; not a directly observed national mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "11 treated states compared with 34 states without universal programs", "weighting": "Varies by model and data source", "sample_coverage": "PSR usable tuition for 19% of U.S. private schools; NCCS for 11%", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "A 2025 11-state study concluded that universal vouchers probably increased private-school tuition by 5% to 10% in the short run.", "key_limitation": "The 5%–10% figure is the authors' reconciliation of models, not one regression coefficient; COVID-era pretrends and selective data coverage complicate attribution.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-RANGE-001", "geography": "United States: 11 treated states vs 34 comparison states", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "One to four years after treatment", "subgroup": "All modeled tuition/revenue specifications", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model-based synthesis", "research_design": "Cross-model sensitivity range", "metric": "Full range of underlying tuition-effect estimates", "reported_result": "Individual estimates ranged from approximately 0% to 13%; authors narrowed the plausible range to 5%–10%.", "estimate_low": "0", "estimate_high": "13", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Mixed; tuition models nominal, revenue models inferred", "statistic_basis": "Sensitivity range across models", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Different models and samples within the same national study", "weighting": "Varies", "sample_coverage": "Same national study samples", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "The national study's individual estimates ranged from roughly zero to 13%, while its authors' overall assessment was 5% to 10%.", "key_limitation": "The endpoints come from models with different samples and outcomes and should not be pooled as if they were one estimate.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-SIMPLE-001", "geography": "United States: treated vs comparison states", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "Short run", "subgroup": "Simple treated-state comparison", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Unadjusted treated-versus-comparison change", "metric": "Simple tuition difference", "reported_result": "The initial simple comparison showed tuition increasing 6% more in universal-voucher states.", "estimate_low": "6", "estimate_high": "6", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Simple comparison", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Universal-voucher states vs non-universal states", "weighting": "Unweighted simple comparison", "sample_coverage": "National PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In the study's initial simple comparison, tuition increased 6% more in universal-voucher states.", "key_limitation": "This is not the preferred causal estimate and does not resolve pretrend or sample-composition issues.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-PSR-001", "geography": "United States", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "Short run", "subgroup": "Private School Review analytic sample", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences using posted tuition", "metric": "PSR tuition estimate", "reported_result": "The main Private School Review coefficient was -0.0026 (approximately -0.26%), with a standard error of 0.0116.", "estimate_low": "-0.26", "estimate_high": "-0.26", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Treated vs comparison states", "weighting": "Model-specific", "sample_coverage": "Usable tuition data for 19% of U.S. private schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "The national study's direct posted-tuition coefficient was approximately -0.26%, statistically near zero, but the model failed its pretrend test.", "key_limitation": "The posted-tuition sample is selective, the model failed its pretrend test, and the authors did not treat this result as their preferred overall conclusion.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-NCCS-SDID-001", "geography": "United States; NCCS treated-state subset", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "Short run", "subgroup": "Nonprofit private schools in NCCS", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "Synthetic difference-in-differences using nonprofit revenue data", "metric": "Tuition-equivalent effect", "reported_result": "Synthetic DID estimates from NCCS were typically around 5%.", "estimate_low": "5", "estimate_high": "5", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Revenue-based approximation", "statistic_basis": "Model estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Treated vs comparison states", "weighting": "Model-specific", "sample_coverage": "NCCS covers about 11% of U.S. private schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "The national study's NCCS synthetic difference-in-differences estimates were typically around 5%.", "key_limitation": "NCCS does not directly separate tuition from enrollment or other revenue and overrepresents smaller nonprofit schools.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-NCCS-PPR-001", "geography": "United States; NCCS treated-state subset", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "Short run", "subgroup": "NCCS schools with enrollment matches", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences on per-pupil program-service revenue", "metric": "Per-pupil revenue effect used as a tuition proxy", "reported_result": "Per-pupil revenue models were in the 6% to 10% range.", "estimate_low": "6", "estimate_high": "10", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Revenue-based approximation", "statistic_basis": "Model estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Treated vs comparison states", "weighting": "Model-specific", "sample_coverage": "NCCS/PSS matched subset", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Per-pupil revenue models in the national study produced estimates of approximately 6% to 10%.", "key_limitation": "Per-pupil program-service revenue is only a proxy for tuition and depends on enrollment matching and accounting assumptions.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-NCCS-TOTAL-001", "geography": "United States; NCCS treated-state subset", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "Short run", "subgroup": "NCCS nonprofit-school sample", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "Total program-service revenue adjusted for enrollment growth", "metric": "Upper-end tuition-equivalent estimate", "reported_result": "The upper-end total-revenue calculation implied a tuition effect of up to 13%.", "estimate_low": "13", "estimate_high": "13", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Revenue-based approximation", "statistic_basis": "Derived within source study", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Treated vs comparison states", "weighting": "Model-specific", "sample_coverage": "NCCS smaller-school sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "The national study's upper-end revenue calculation implied a tuition effect of up to 13%.", "key_limitation": "The authors considered this estimate likely upward-biased because NCCS emphasizes smaller schools, where effects were expected to be larger.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-COVERAGE-PSR-001", "geography": "United States", "program_or_policy": "Not an effect estimate", "expansion_year": "Not applicable", "observation_period": "2020–2024 tuition panel", "subgroup": "Private School Review", "evidence_class": "Methodology context", "research_design": "Data-coverage audit", "metric": "Share of U.S. private schools with usable tuition data", "reported_result": "Private School Review supplied usable tuition data for 19% of U.S. K–12 private schools.", "estimate_low": "19", "estimate_high": "19", "unit": "percent of schools", "price_basis": "Not applicable", "statistic_basis": "Coverage statistic", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Compared with the study's national private-school denominator", "weighting": "Not applicable", "sample_coverage": "Approximately 5,000 complete tuition cases", "causal_claim_permitted": "Not applicable", "safe_quoting_language": "The national study's posted-tuition analysis covered 19% of U.S. K–12 private schools.", "key_limitation": "Coverage is not random; schools maintaining or updating commercial profiles may differ from other private schools.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Methodology context only" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-COVERAGE-NCCS-001", "geography": "United States", "program_or_policy": "Not an effect estimate", "expansion_year": "Not applicable", "observation_period": "NCCS panel", "subgroup": "National Center for Charitable Statistics", "evidence_class": "Methodology context", "research_design": "Data-coverage audit", "metric": "Share of U.S. private schools represented", "reported_result": "NCCS data were available for about 11% of U.S. private schools.", "estimate_low": "11", "estimate_high": "11", "unit": "percent of schools", "price_basis": "Not applicable", "statistic_basis": "Coverage statistic", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Compared with the study's national private-school denominator", "weighting": "Not applicable", "sample_coverage": "Nonprofit tax-filing sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Not applicable", "safe_quoting_language": "The national study's nonprofit revenue data covered approximately 11% of U.S. private schools.", "key_limitation": "NCCS excludes schools without usable nonprofit filings and cannot directly distinguish tuition from other program-service revenue.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "REACH / Tulane University; EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic technical report / working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Methodology context only" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-RAW-K-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "2021–22 to 2023–24", "subgroup": "Kindergarten; universal eligibility", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Enrollment-weighted raw tuition means", "metric": "Observed tuition change", "reported_result": "Iowa: $5,058 to $6,753 (+34%); Nebraska: $4,517 to $4,754 (+5%).", "estimate_low": "34", "estimate_high": "34", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Enrollment-weighted mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs neighboring Nebraska", "weighting": "Kindergarten enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "Final analytic sample: 51% of Iowa schools educating 62% of Iowa private-school students; 44% of Nebraska schools educating 51% of students", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Iowa kindergarten tuition rose 34% while Nebraska's rose 5% over the same period; the raw difference is not itself the causal estimate.", "key_limitation": "Raw before/after differences can reflect other state-specific changes; the causal estimate comes from the study's difference-in-differences model.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-DID-K-POP-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First implementation year", "subgroup": "Kindergarten; universal eligibility", "evidence_class": "Class A — quasi-experimental causal estimate", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences without school fixed effects", "metric": "Population-level ESA tuition effect", "reported_result": "Estimated 25% increase in kindergarten tuition.", "estimate_low": "25", "estimate_high": "25", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Enrollment-weighted regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs Nebraska and pre/post variation", "weighting": "Kindergarten enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "319 observations in kindergarten models", "causal_claim_permitted": "Yes, within study assumptions", "safe_quoting_language": "The Iowa study estimated a 25% population-level increase in kindergarten tuition after ESA implementation.", "key_limitation": "Single-state study; estimate without school fixed effects reflects changes across the pool of schools as well as within-school pricing.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-DID-K-FE-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First implementation year", "subgroup": "Kindergarten; universal eligibility", "evidence_class": "Class A — quasi-experimental causal estimate", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences with school fixed effects", "metric": "Within-school ESA tuition effect", "reported_result": "Estimated 21% increase, approximately $1,280.", "estimate_low": "21", "estimate_high": "21", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Enrollment-weighted regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same schools over time in Iowa vs Nebraska", "weighting": "Kindergarten enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "319 observations in kindergarten models", "causal_claim_permitted": "Yes, within study assumptions", "safe_quoting_language": "Comparing the same schools over time, the Iowa study estimated that ESA implementation increased kindergarten tuition by 21%, or about $1,280.", "key_limitation": "Single-state setting and incomplete tuition/enrollment reporting limit generalizability beyond Iowa.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-TSCI-K-GAP-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "2021–22 to 2023–24", "subgroup": "Kindergarten", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Arithmetic difference between published raw changes", "metric": "Raw treated-control divergence", "reported_result": "34% minus 5% = 29 percentage points.", "estimate_low": "29", "estimate_high": "29", "unit": "percentage points", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Original arithmetic from source table", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa raw change minus Nebraska raw change", "weighting": "Source means were enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "Same analytic sample as source study", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "The raw kindergarten tuition increase in Iowa exceeded Nebraska's by 29 percentage points; this is a descriptive calculation, not the study's causal estimate.", "key_limitation": "Subtracting raw changes does not reproduce the full regression model and must not be labeled a causal effect.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "34.00 - 5.00 = 29.00 percentage points", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-RAW-G1-12-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "2021–22 to 2023–24", "subgroup": "Grades 1–12; partial eligibility", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Enrollment-weighted raw tuition means", "metric": "Observed tuition change", "reported_result": "Iowa: $7,534 to $8,724 (+16%); Nebraska: $6,863 to $7,285 (+6%).", "estimate_low": "16", "estimate_high": "16", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Enrollment-weighted mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs neighboring Nebraska", "weighting": "Grade-level enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "Final analytic sample described above", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "For grades 1–12, Iowa tuition rose 16% while Nebraska's rose 6%; the raw difference is not itself the causal estimate.", "key_limitation": "Eligibility was partial and varied by household, and raw means do not control for school composition.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-DID-G1-12-POP-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First implementation year", "subgroup": "Grades 1–12; partial eligibility", "evidence_class": "Class A — quasi-experimental causal estimate", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences without school-grade fixed effects", "metric": "Population-level ESA tuition effect", "reported_result": "Estimated 16% increase.", "estimate_low": "16", "estimate_high": "16", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Enrollment-weighted regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs Nebraska and pre/post variation", "weighting": "Grade-level enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "738 observations in grades 1–12 models", "causal_claim_permitted": "Yes, within study assumptions", "safe_quoting_language": "The Iowa study estimated a 16% population-level tuition increase in grades 1–12 after ESA implementation.", "key_limitation": "Without school-grade fixed effects, the estimate includes both within-school changes and changes in the composition of observed schools.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-DID-G1-12-FE-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First implementation year", "subgroup": "Grades 1–12; partial eligibility", "evidence_class": "Class A — quasi-experimental causal estimate", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences with school-grade fixed effects", "metric": "Within-school ESA tuition effect", "reported_result": "Estimated 10% increase, approximately $830.", "estimate_low": "10", "estimate_high": "10", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Enrollment-weighted regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same grade in the same school over time, Iowa vs Nebraska", "weighting": "Grade-level enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "738 observations in grades 1–12 models", "causal_claim_permitted": "Yes, within study assumptions", "safe_quoting_language": "Comparing the same grade within the same school over time, the Iowa study estimated a 10% tuition increase, or about $830, in grades 1–12.", "key_limitation": "Single-state setting and partial eligibility mean this estimate should not be generalized automatically to fully universal programs elsewhere.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-TSCI-G1-12-GAP-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "2021–22 to 2023–24", "subgroup": "Grades 1–12", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Arithmetic difference between published raw changes", "metric": "Raw treated-control divergence", "reported_result": "16% minus 6% = 10 percentage points.", "estimate_low": "10", "estimate_high": "10", "unit": "percentage points", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Original arithmetic from source table", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa raw change minus Nebraska raw change", "weighting": "Source means were enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "Same analytic sample as source study", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "The raw grades 1–12 tuition increase in Iowa exceeded Nebraska's by 10 percentage points; this is descriptive arithmetic, not the regression estimate.", "key_limitation": "This happens to equal the fixed-effects estimate numerically but is not the same calculation.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "16.00 - 6.00 = 10.00 percentage points", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-RAW-PREK-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "2021–22 to 2023–24", "subgroup": "Pre-K; ineligible", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Enrollment-weighted raw tuition means", "metric": "Observed tuition change", "reported_result": "Iowa pre-K tuition rose 4%; Nebraska pre-K tuition rose 8%.", "estimate_low": "4", "estimate_high": "4", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Enrollment-weighted mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "weighting": "Pre-K enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "224 observations in pre-K models", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In the ineligible pre-K comparison, Iowa tuition rose 4% while Nebraska's rose 8%.", "key_limitation": "Raw changes are descriptive; pre-K is useful as a placebo-like eligibility comparison but is not identical to K–12 markets.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-DID-PREK-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First implementation year", "subgroup": "Pre-K; ineligible", "evidence_class": "Class A — quasi-experimental falsification result", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences", "metric": "Effect in an ineligible grade", "reported_result": "No statistically detectable ESA-related tuition increase.", "estimate_low": "0", "estimate_high": "0", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Regression result", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs Nebraska and pre/post variation", "weighting": "Pre-K enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "224 observations", "causal_claim_permitted": "Yes, as a null result within study assumptions", "safe_quoting_language": "The Iowa study found no ESA-related tuition increase in pre-K, which was ineligible for the program.", "key_limitation": "A null result is not proof that every noneligible market would be unchanged.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-TSCI-PREK-GAP-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First Education Savings Account", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "2021–22 to 2023–24", "subgroup": "Pre-K", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Arithmetic difference between published raw changes", "metric": "Raw treated-control divergence", "reported_result": "4% minus 8% = -4 percentage points.", "estimate_low": "-4", "estimate_high": "-4", "unit": "percentage points", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars; no inflation adjustment stated", "statistic_basis": "Original arithmetic from source table", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa raw change minus Nebraska raw change", "weighting": "Source means were enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "Same analytic sample as source study", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "The raw pre-K tuition change in Iowa was 4 percentage points lower than Nebraska's.", "key_limitation": "This descriptive difference is not a standalone causal estimate.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "Annenberg Institute at Brown University / EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "4.00 - 8.00 = -4.00 percentage points", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-RAND-ELEM-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2023 to 2025", "subgroup": "Private elementary schools", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive before/after", "research_design": "State trend reconstructed from Private School Review archives", "metric": "Average real tuition change", "reported_result": "Average elementary tuition rose from $10,115 to $11,365 in 2025 dollars (+12%).", "estimate_low": "12", "estimate_high": "12", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Real; converted to 2025 dollars", "statistic_basis": "Average", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Before/after Arizona trend; national tuition used as context, not a causal control", "weighting": "Not stated as school-enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "Private School Review profile data; incomplete universe", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "RAND found that average real elementary tuition in Arizona rose 12% from 2023 to 2025, but did not attribute the increase definitively to universal ESAs.", "key_limitation": "Private School Review participation can change over time and the design does not isolate the ESA effect from other Arizona-specific factors.", "source_title": "Case Study of Arizona's K–12 Education Savings Account Program: What State Policymakers Can Learn", "source_organization": "RAND", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed policy research report", "source_date": "2025-11-13", "source_url": "https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3400/RRA3431-2/RAND_RRA3431-2.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-RAND-HS-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2023 to 2025", "subgroup": "Private high schools", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive before/after", "research_design": "State trend reconstructed from Private School Review archives", "metric": "Average real tuition change", "reported_result": "Average high-school tuition rose from $14,663 to $15,444 in 2025 dollars (+5%).", "estimate_low": "5", "estimate_high": "5", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Real; converted to 2025 dollars", "statistic_basis": "Average", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Before/after Arizona trend; national tuition used as context, not a causal control", "weighting": "Not stated as school-enrollment weighted", "sample_coverage": "Private School Review profile data; incomplete universe", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "RAND found that average real high-school tuition in Arizona rose 5% from 2023 to 2025, but did not attribute the increase definitively to universal ESAs.", "key_limitation": "The underlying commercial-profile data are not a complete census and the estimate is descriptive.", "source_title": "Case Study of Arizona's K–12 Education Savings Account Program: What State Policymakers Can Learn", "source_organization": "RAND", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed policy research report", "source_date": "2025-11-13", "source_url": "https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3400/RRA3431-2/RAND_RRA3431-2.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-GWI-ELEM-NOM-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2021 to 2023", "subgroup": "Grades 1–5", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive before/after", "research_design": "Matched-school posted tuition and mandatory-fee comparison", "metric": "Median nominal tuition change", "reported_result": "Median elementary tuition and mandatory fees rose 14.7% over two years.", "estimate_low": "14.7", "estimate_high": "14.7", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Median school-level change", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same institutions with comparable 2021 and 2023 prices", "weighting": "Unweighted median", "sample_coverage": "141 elementary schools within 161 distinct institutions", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Goldwater Institute reported a 14.7% median nominal increase in Arizona elementary tuition and mandatory fees from 2021 to 2023.", "key_limitation": "No external counterfactual; advocacy-source analysis; period begins before universal enrollment and uses first-child/primary-constituency posted prices.", "source_title": "Universal Opportunity: How Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Accounts Defied Critics and Unleashed Affordable Private Education for All, Part I", "source_organization": "Goldwater Institute", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank policy report", "source_date": "2024-01-22", "source_url": "https://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/policy-report/universal-opportunity/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-GWI-ELEM-REAL-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2021 to 2023", "subgroup": "Grades 1–5", "evidence_class": "Class D — inflation-adjusted descriptive", "research_design": "Matched-school posted prices adjusted by U.S. CPI", "metric": "Median real tuition change", "reported_result": "The source subtracts 12.2% cumulative U.S. CPI growth from a 14.7% nominal median increase, a 2.5-percentage-point approximation.", "estimate_low": "2.5", "estimate_high": "2.5", "unit": "percentage-point difference", "price_basis": "Real using U.S. CPI", "statistic_basis": "Median school-level change", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same institutions before/after", "weighting": "Unweighted median", "sample_coverage": "141 elementary schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Goldwater reported a 14.7% nominal median elementary increase and placed it 2.5 percentage points above cumulative U.S. CPI growth.", "key_limitation": "Simple subtraction from cumulative CPI is an approximation, not a formal deflation calculation or causal estimate.", "source_title": "Universal Opportunity: How Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Accounts Defied Critics and Unleashed Affordable Private Education for All, Part I", "source_organization": "Goldwater Institute", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank policy report", "source_date": "2024-01-22", "source_url": "https://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/policy-report/universal-opportunity/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "Source-reported calculation: 14.7% nominal change less 12.2% cumulative U.S. CPI change = 2.5 percentage points.", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-GWI-HS-NOM-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2021 to 2023", "subgroup": "Grades 9–12", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive before/after", "research_design": "Matched-school posted tuition and mandatory-fee comparison", "metric": "Median nominal tuition change", "reported_result": "Median high-school tuition rose 12.6% over two years.", "estimate_low": "12.6", "estimate_high": "12.6", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Median school-level change", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same institutions with comparable 2021 and 2023 prices", "weighting": "Unweighted median", "sample_coverage": "55 high schools within 161 distinct institutions", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Goldwater Institute reported a 12.6% median nominal increase in Arizona high-school tuition from 2021 to 2023.", "key_limitation": "No external counterfactual; smaller high-school sample; advocacy-source analysis.", "source_title": "Universal Opportunity: How Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Accounts Defied Critics and Unleashed Affordable Private Education for All, Part I", "source_organization": "Goldwater Institute", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank policy report", "source_date": "2024-01-22", "source_url": "https://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/policy-report/universal-opportunity/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-GWI-HS-REAL-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2021 to 2023", "subgroup": "Grades 9–12", "evidence_class": "Class D — inflation-adjusted descriptive", "research_design": "Matched-school posted prices adjusted by U.S. CPI", "metric": "Annualized real tuition change", "reported_result": "The source reported a real increase of less than 0.25% per year.", "estimate_low": "", "estimate_high": "0.25", "unit": "percent per year", "price_basis": "Real using U.S. CPI", "statistic_basis": "Median school-level change", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same institutions before/after", "weighting": "Unweighted median", "sample_coverage": "55 high schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Goldwater calculated that Arizona high-school tuition rose by less than 0.25% per year in real terms from 2021 to 2023.", "key_limitation": "No causal control and the source reports an upper bound rather than an exact annualized estimate.", "source_title": "Universal Opportunity: How Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Accounts Defied Critics and Unleashed Affordable Private Education for All, Part I", "source_organization": "Goldwater Institute", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank policy report", "source_date": "2024-01-22", "source_url": "https://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/policy-report/universal-opportunity/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PSFNC-5Y-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Universal access to Opportunity Scholarships", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2020–21 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Five-year matched cohort, N=10 schools", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive before/after", "research_design": "School-level posted-tuition panel; grade prices averaged within school", "metric": "Average annual tuition change in expansion year", "reported_result": "Expansion-year average increase: 13.9%; prior annual changes: 1.8%, 3.7%, and 5.3%.", "estimate_low": "13.9", "estimate_high": "13.9", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted average of school-level percentage changes", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same schools over time; no external control", "weighting": "Unweighted across schools", "sample_coverage": "10 schools with five years of complete data", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In Public Schools First NC's 10-school five-year cohort, the average tuition increase was 13.9% in the first universal-access year, versus 5.3% in the preceding year.", "key_limitation": "Very small matched cohort, no causal model, no inflation adjustment, and advocacy-source interpretation.", "source_title": "North Carolina's Taxpayer-Funded Vouchers & Private School Tuition Increases", "source_organization": "Public Schools First NC", "source_type": "Advocacy-organization original data brief", "source_date": "2025", "source_url": "https://publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/axpayer-Funded-Vouchers-and-Private-School-Tuition-Increases-fact-sheet.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PSFNC-4Y-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Universal access to Opportunity Scholarships", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2021–22 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Four-year matched cohort, N=30 schools", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive before/after", "research_design": "School-level posted-tuition panel; grade prices averaged within school", "metric": "Average annual tuition change in expansion year", "reported_result": "Expansion-year average increase: 14.9%; prior annual changes: 4.0% and 7.8%.", "estimate_low": "14.9", "estimate_high": "14.9", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted average of school-level percentage changes", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same schools over time; no external control", "weighting": "Unweighted across schools", "sample_coverage": "30 schools with four years of complete data", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In Public Schools First NC's 30-school four-year cohort, the average tuition increase was 14.9% in the first universal-access year, versus 7.8% in the preceding year.", "key_limitation": "Small nonrandom cohort, no causal model, no inflation adjustment, and possible fee or tuition-definition changes.", "source_title": "North Carolina's Taxpayer-Funded Vouchers & Private School Tuition Increases", "source_organization": "Public Schools First NC", "source_type": "Advocacy-organization original data brief", "source_date": "2025", "source_url": "https://publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/axpayer-Funded-Vouchers-and-Private-School-Tuition-Increases-fact-sheet.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PSFNC-3Y-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Universal access to Opportunity Scholarships", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2022–23 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Three-year matched cohort, N=49 schools", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive before/after", "research_design": "School-level posted-tuition panel; grade prices averaged within school", "metric": "Average annual tuition change in expansion year", "reported_result": "Expansion-year average increase: 15.4%; preceding-year increase: 7.5%.", "estimate_low": "15.4", "estimate_high": "15.4", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted average of school-level percentage changes", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same schools over time; no external control", "weighting": "Unweighted across schools", "sample_coverage": "49 schools with three years of complete data", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In Public Schools First NC's 49-school three-year cohort, the average tuition increase was 15.4% in the first universal-access year, versus 7.5% in the preceding year.", "key_limitation": "Small nonrandom cohort and no causal adjustment; values may mix tuition with fee-reclassification changes.", "source_title": "North Carolina's Taxpayer-Funded Vouchers & Private School Tuition Increases", "source_organization": "Public Schools First NC", "source_type": "Advocacy-organization original data brief", "source_date": "2025", "source_url": "https://publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/axpayer-Funded-Vouchers-and-Private-School-Tuition-Increases-fact-sheet.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PSFNC-LOW-BRACKET-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Universal access to Opportunity Scholarships", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "299 schools with two-year data", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive distribution shift", "research_design": "Tuition-bracket count comparison", "metric": "Change in schools charging $3,000–$5,999", "reported_result": "Count fell from 83 to 43 schools: 40 fewer, a 48.2% decrease.", "estimate_low": "-48.2", "estimate_high": "-48.2", "unit": "percent change in school count", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Count of schools", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same 299 schools across two years", "weighting": "Unweighted counts", "sample_coverage": "299 schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Among 299 North Carolina schools with two-year data, the number charging $3,000–$5,999 fell from 83 to 43, a 48% decrease.", "key_limitation": "Bracket migration does not establish why prices changed and does not track family net price or quality.", "source_title": "North Carolina's Taxpayer-Funded Vouchers & Private School Tuition Increases", "source_organization": "Public Schools First NC", "source_type": "Advocacy-organization original data brief", "source_date": "2025", "source_url": "https://publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/axpayer-Funded-Vouchers-and-Private-School-Tuition-Increases-fact-sheet.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "(43 - 83) / 83 × 100 = -48.19%; source rounds to a 48% decrease.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PSFNC-MID-BRACKET-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Universal access to Opportunity Scholarships", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "299 schools with two-year data", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive distribution shift", "research_design": "Tuition-bracket count comparison", "metric": "Change in schools charging $6,000–$7,999", "reported_result": "Count rose from 76 to 101 schools: 25 more, a 32.9% increase.", "estimate_low": "32.9", "estimate_high": "32.9", "unit": "percent change in school count", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Count of schools", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same 299 schools across two years", "weighting": "Unweighted counts", "sample_coverage": "299 schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Among 299 North Carolina schools with two-year data, the number charging $6,000–$7,999 rose from 76 to 101, a 33% increase.", "key_limitation": "The distribution shift is descriptive and does not prove schools targeted voucher values.", "source_title": "North Carolina's Taxpayer-Funded Vouchers & Private School Tuition Increases", "source_organization": "Public Schools First NC", "source_type": "Advocacy-organization original data brief", "source_date": "2025", "source_url": "https://publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/axpayer-Funded-Vouchers-and-Private-School-Tuition-Increases-fact-sheet.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "(101 - 76) / 76 × 100 = 32.89%; source describes a 32% increase.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PSFNC-VOUCHER-BAND-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Universal access to Opportunity Scholarships", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "299 schools with two-year data", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive distribution shift", "research_design": "Tuition-bracket count comparison", "metric": "Schools charging $7,000–$7,999", "reported_result": "Count rose from 31 to 48; 12 charged $7,400–$7,500 and two charged exactly $7,468, the maximum award.", "estimate_low": "31", "estimate_high": "48", "unit": "school count before/after", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Count of schools", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same 299 schools across two years", "weighting": "Unweighted counts", "sample_coverage": "299 schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "The number of schools charging $7,000–$7,999 rose from 31 to 48; 12 were between $7,400 and $7,500 and two listed exactly $7,468.", "key_limitation": "Clustering near an award amount is suggestive but not proof that the award caused each school's price decision.", "source_title": "North Carolina's Taxpayer-Funded Vouchers & Private School Tuition Increases", "source_organization": "Public Schools First NC", "source_type": "Advocacy-organization original data brief", "source_date": "2025", "source_url": "https://publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/axpayer-Funded-Vouchers-and-Private-School-Tuition-Increases-fact-sheet.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PSFNC-THALES-001", "geography": "North Carolina and one Virginia comparison campus", "program_or_policy": "Universal access to Opportunity Scholarships", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Ten NC Thales academies; one Virginia academy", "evidence_class": "Class C — limited controlled descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Same-network tuition comparison", "metric": "Average annual tuition change", "reported_result": "North Carolina Thales tuition rose 7% in 2023–24 and 12.2% to $6,651 in 2024–25; the single Virginia K–5 comparison price remained $5,300.", "estimate_low": "12.2", "estimate_high": "12.2", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Average across 10 NC campuses", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "One same-network Virginia campus as descriptive comparator", "weighting": "Unweighted campus average", "sample_coverage": "10 NC campuses and one Virginia campus", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Public Schools First NC reported a 12.2% increase across 10 North Carolina Thales campuses in 2024–25, while one Virginia K–5 comparison price remained $5,300.", "key_limitation": "One Virginia campus is not a control group, and its K–5 price is not directly comparable with the North Carolina all-campus average.", "source_title": "North Carolina's Taxpayer-Funded Vouchers & Private School Tuition Increases", "source_organization": "Public Schools First NC", "source_type": "Advocacy-organization original data brief", "source_date": "2025", "source_url": "https://publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/axpayer-Funded-Vouchers-and-Private-School-Tuition-Increases-fact-sheet.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-CF-HIGH-2324-2425", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Opportunity Scholarship expansion", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Purposive sample of high-voucher-dollar schools", "evidence_class": "Class C — controlled descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Wayback-based posted-tuition comparison", "metric": "Unweighted average tuition change", "reported_result": "High-voucher-dollar group average: +6.73%.", "estimate_low": "6.73", "estimate_high": "6.73", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted mean of available school-level changes", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Compared descriptively with NC non-voucher and SC groups", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "24 selected NC schools, with missing values for some years", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Carolina Forward's selected high-voucher-dollar North Carolina group averaged a 6.73% tuition increase from 2023–24 to 2024–25.", "key_limitation": "Purposive selection, missing observations, outliers, and no econometric adjustment.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis with public source sheet", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-CF-HIGH-2425-2526", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Opportunity Scholarship expansion", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2024–25 to 2025–26", "subgroup": "Purposive sample of high-voucher-dollar schools", "evidence_class": "Class C — controlled descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Wayback-based posted-tuition comparison", "metric": "Unweighted average tuition change", "reported_result": "High-voucher-dollar group average: +15.82%.", "estimate_low": "15.82", "estimate_high": "15.82", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted mean of available school-level changes", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Compared descriptively with NC non-voucher and SC groups", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "24 selected NC schools, with missing values for some years", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Carolina Forward's selected high-voucher-dollar North Carolina group averaged a 15.82% tuition increase from 2024–25 to 2025–26.", "key_limitation": "Purposive sample, substantial missingness, unweighted mean, and sensitivity to large outliers.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis with public source sheet", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-CF-NONV-2324-2425", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "No Opportunity Scholarship acceptance in selected schools", "expansion_year": "Not applicable", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Purposive non-voucher school group", "evidence_class": "Class C — controlled descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Wayback-based posted-tuition comparison", "metric": "Unweighted average tuition change", "reported_result": "Selected non-voucher group average: +6.08%.", "estimate_low": "6.08", "estimate_high": "6.08", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Comparator group within North Carolina", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "11 selected schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Carolina Forward's selected North Carolina non-voucher group averaged a 6.08% tuition increase from 2023–24 to 2024–25.", "key_limitation": "Small purposive comparator and no matching or covariate adjustment.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis with public source sheet", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-CF-NONV-2425-2526", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "No Opportunity Scholarship acceptance in selected schools", "expansion_year": "Not applicable", "observation_period": "2024–25 to 2025–26", "subgroup": "Purposive non-voucher school group", "evidence_class": "Class C — controlled descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Wayback-based posted-tuition comparison", "metric": "Unweighted average tuition change", "reported_result": "Selected non-voucher group average: +4.51%.", "estimate_low": "4.51", "estimate_high": "4.51", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Comparator group within North Carolina", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "11 selected schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Carolina Forward's selected North Carolina non-voucher group averaged a 4.51% tuition increase from 2024–25 to 2025–26.", "key_limitation": "Small purposive comparator and no matching or covariate adjustment.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis with public source sheet", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "SC-CF-CONTROL-2324-2425", "geography": "South Carolina", "program_or_policy": "No broad voucher program in the study period", "expansion_year": "Not applicable", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Purposive South Carolina private-school group", "evidence_class": "Class C — controlled descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Wayback-based posted-tuition comparison", "metric": "Unweighted average tuition change", "reported_result": "Selected South Carolina group average: +5.86%.", "estimate_low": "5.86", "estimate_high": "5.86", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Cross-state descriptive comparator", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "15 selected schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Carolina Forward's selected South Carolina group averaged a 5.86% tuition increase from 2023–24 to 2024–25.", "key_limitation": "Small purposive cross-state group; South Carolina may differ from North Carolina in unrelated ways.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis with public source sheet", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "SC-CF-CONTROL-2425-2526", "geography": "South Carolina", "program_or_policy": "No broad voucher program in the study period", "expansion_year": "Not applicable", "observation_period": "2024–25 to 2025–26", "subgroup": "Purposive South Carolina private-school group", "evidence_class": "Class C — controlled descriptive comparison", "research_design": "Wayback-based posted-tuition comparison", "metric": "Unweighted average tuition change", "reported_result": "Selected South Carolina group average: +5.91%.", "estimate_low": "5.91", "estimate_high": "5.91", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Unweighted mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Cross-state descriptive comparator", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "15 selected schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Carolina Forward's selected South Carolina group averaged a 5.91% tuition increase from 2024–25 to 2025–26.", "key_limitation": "Small purposive cross-state group and no econometric adjustment.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis with public source sheet", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-TSCI-CF-GAP-SC-001", "geography": "North Carolina vs South Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Opportunity Scholarship expansion", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2024–25 to 2025–26", "subgroup": "Carolina Forward selected groups", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Arithmetic difference between published group means", "metric": "High-voucher NC minus SC comparator", "reported_result": "15.82% minus 5.91% = 9.91 percentage points.", "estimate_low": "9.91", "estimate_high": "9.91", "unit": "percentage points", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Original arithmetic from published unweighted means", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "High-voucher NC group vs selected SC group", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "Underlying groups: 24 NC and 15 SC schools, with missing values", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In Carolina Forward's selected groups, the 2025–26 average increase for high-voucher North Carolina schools exceeded the South Carolina group by 9.91 percentage points.", "key_limitation": "This is descriptive arithmetic from purposive samples, not a causal difference-in-differences estimate.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis with public source sheet", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "15.82 - 5.91 = 9.91 percentage points", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-TSCI-CF-GAP-NC-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Opportunity Scholarship expansion", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2024–25 to 2025–26", "subgroup": "Carolina Forward selected groups", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Arithmetic difference between published group means", "metric": "High-voucher NC minus non-voucher NC comparator", "reported_result": "15.82% minus 4.51% = 11.31 percentage points.", "estimate_low": "11.31", "estimate_high": "11.31", "unit": "percentage points", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Original arithmetic from published unweighted means", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "High-voucher NC group vs selected non-voucher NC group", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "Underlying groups: 24 and 11 selected schools, with missing values", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In Carolina Forward's selected North Carolina groups, the 2025–26 average increase for high-voucher schools exceeded the non-voucher group by 11.31 percentage points.", "key_limitation": "This is descriptive arithmetic from purposive samples, not a causal estimate.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis with public source sheet", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "15.82 - 4.51 = 11.31 percentage points", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "US-HER-ALWAYS-NEVER-001", "geography": "United States, all 50 states", "program_or_policy": "Broadly defined school-choice policy adoption", "expansion_year": "Varied; not limited to universal expansions", "observation_period": "2013–14 to 2022–23", "subgroup": "States with long-standing choice vs states with none", "evidence_class": "Class E — broader-policy panel evidence", "research_design": "Descriptive state-group trend comparison", "metric": "Total tuition change", "reported_result": "Always-choice states: +15.4%; never-choice states: +27.6%.", "estimate_low": "15.4", "estimate_high": "27.6", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal in Table 1", "statistic_basis": "State-group average", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Always-choice vs never-choice states", "weighting": "Not fully documented in two-page factsheet", "sample_coverage": "All 50 states using Private School Review state data", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "A Heritage factsheet reported that tuition rose 15.4% in long-standing choice states and 27.6% in never-choice states from 2013–14 to 2022–23.", "key_limitation": "The treatment combines many types and vintages of school-choice policies and does not isolate the post-2021 universal-voucher expansion wave.", "source_title": "School Choice Policies Do Not Raise Private School Tuition", "source_organization": "The Heritage Foundation", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank factsheet", "source_date": "2023-08-31", "source_url": "https://www.heritage.org/education/report/does-school-choice-affect-private-school-tuition", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "US-HER-BEFORE-AFTER-001", "geography": "United States; eight recent-adopter states in factsheet", "program_or_policy": "Broadly defined school-choice policy adoption", "expansion_year": "2013–2023 window", "observation_period": "Before vs after adoption within 2013–14 to 2022–23", "subgroup": "Recent adopter states", "evidence_class": "Class E — broader-policy panel evidence", "research_design": "Before/after state average", "metric": "Average annual real tuition change", "reported_result": "Before adoption: +2.1% per year; after adoption: -1.5% per year.", "estimate_low": "-1.5", "estimate_high": "2.1", "unit": "percent per year", "price_basis": "Inflation adjusted", "statistic_basis": "Average across listed states", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same states before vs after policy adoption", "weighting": "Not fully documented in two-page factsheet", "sample_coverage": "Eight listed adopter states", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited, but not for the exact universal-expansion question", "safe_quoting_language": "Heritage reported that average inflation-adjusted tuition growth shifted from +2.1% before adoption to -1.5% after adoption across eight recent-adopter states.", "key_limitation": "Broad policy definition, small state set, limited model documentation, and a period that largely predates recent universal expansions.", "source_title": "School Choice Policies Do Not Raise Private School Tuition", "source_organization": "The Heritage Foundation", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank factsheet", "source_date": "2023-08-31", "source_url": "https://www.heritage.org/education/report/does-school-choice-affect-private-school-tuition", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "US-HER-FE-ELEM-001", "geography": "United States, all 50 states", "program_or_policy": "Broadly defined school-choice policy adoption", "expansion_year": "Varied", "observation_period": "2013–14 to 2022–23", "subgroup": "Private elementary schools", "evidence_class": "Class E — broader-policy panel evidence", "research_design": "State and year fixed-effects model", "metric": "Estimated effect on tuition level", "reported_result": "Elementary tuition was estimated to be $925 lower than the counterfactual; statistically significant.", "estimate_low": "-925", "estimate_high": "-925", "unit": "USD", "price_basis": "Factsheet describes inflation-adjusted analysis", "statistic_basis": "Fixed-effects coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "States before/after adoption with state and year fixed effects", "weighting": "Not fully documented in two-page factsheet", "sample_coverage": "487 observations", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited, but scope does not match recent universal expansion", "safe_quoting_language": "Heritage's state-and-year fixed-effects model estimated elementary tuition at $925 below the no-adoption counterfactual.", "key_limitation": "The factsheet does not report standard errors or full specifications and combines heterogeneous school-choice policies.", "source_title": "School Choice Policies Do Not Raise Private School Tuition", "source_organization": "The Heritage Foundation", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank factsheet", "source_date": "2023-08-31", "source_url": "https://www.heritage.org/education/report/does-school-choice-affect-private-school-tuition", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "US-HER-FE-HS-001", "geography": "United States, all 50 states", "program_or_policy": "Broadly defined school-choice policy adoption", "expansion_year": "Varied", "observation_period": "2013–14 to 2022–23", "subgroup": "Private high schools", "evidence_class": "Class E — broader-policy panel evidence", "research_design": "State and year fixed-effects model", "metric": "Estimated effect on tuition level", "reported_result": "High-school tuition was estimated to be $323 lower; not statistically significant.", "estimate_low": "-323", "estimate_high": "-323", "unit": "USD", "price_basis": "Factsheet describes inflation-adjusted analysis", "statistic_basis": "Fixed-effects coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "States before/after adoption with state and year fixed effects", "weighting": "Not fully documented in two-page factsheet", "sample_coverage": "477 observations", "causal_claim_permitted": "No statistically supported causal claim", "safe_quoting_language": "Heritage estimated a $323 lower high-school tuition level after adoption, but the result was not statistically significant.", "key_limitation": "Broad policy scope and limited reporting; a nonsignificant coefficient should not be described as a demonstrated reduction.", "source_title": "School Choice Policies Do Not Raise Private School Tuition", "source_organization": "The Heritage Foundation", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank factsheet", "source_date": "2023-08-31", "source_url": "https://www.heritage.org/education/report/does-school-choice-affect-private-school-tuition", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "US-HER-FE-ALL-001", "geography": "United States, all 50 states", "program_or_policy": "Broadly defined school-choice policy adoption", "expansion_year": "Varied", "observation_period": "2013–14 to 2022–23", "subgroup": "All private schools", "evidence_class": "Class E — broader-policy panel evidence", "research_design": "State and year fixed-effects model", "metric": "Estimated effect on tuition level", "reported_result": "All-school tuition was estimated to be $330 lower; not statistically significant.", "estimate_low": "-330", "estimate_high": "-330", "unit": "USD", "price_basis": "Factsheet describes inflation-adjusted analysis", "statistic_basis": "Fixed-effects coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "States before/after adoption with state and year fixed effects", "weighting": "Not fully documented in two-page factsheet", "sample_coverage": "491 observations", "causal_claim_permitted": "No statistically supported causal claim", "safe_quoting_language": "Heritage estimated an overall $330 lower tuition level after adoption, but the result was not statistically significant.", "key_limitation": "Broad policy scope, no reported standard errors in the factsheet, and no specific focus on universal voucher expansions.", "source_title": "School Choice Policies Do Not Raise Private School Tuition", "source_organization": "The Heritage Foundation", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank factsheet", "source_date": "2023-08-31", "source_url": "https://www.heritage.org/education/report/does-school-choice-affect-private-school-tuition", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-AZ-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient +0.047 (p<.001); pre-treatment mean $10,375.64; rough coefficient × mean scale $+488.", "estimate_low": "4.7", "estimate_high": "4.7", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a +4.7% model coefficient for Arizona; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "0.047 × 10375.64 = 487.66; rounded to $+488.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-IA-001", "geography": "Iowa", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient +0.019 (p<.001); pre-treatment mean $5,506.01; rough coefficient × mean scale $+105.", "estimate_low": "1.9", "estimate_high": "1.9", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a +1.9% model coefficient for Iowa; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "0.019 × 5506.01 = 104.61; rounded to $+105.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-SC-001", "geography": "South Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient +0.009 (p<.05); pre-treatment mean $9,329.49; rough coefficient × mean scale $+84.", "estimate_low": "0.8999999999999999", "estimate_high": "0.8999999999999999", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a +0.9% model coefficient for South Carolina; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "0.009 × 9329.49 = 83.97; rounded to $+84.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-NC-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient +0.007 (p<.05); pre-treatment mean $10,627.06; rough coefficient × mean scale $+74.", "estimate_low": "0.7000000000000001", "estimate_high": "0.7000000000000001", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a +0.7% model coefficient for North Carolina; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "0.007 × 10627.06 = 74.39; rounded to $+74.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-OH-001", "geography": "Ohio", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient -0.001 (not significant); pre-treatment mean $8,246.58; rough coefficient × mean scale $-8.", "estimate_low": "-0.1", "estimate_high": "-0.1", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a -0.1% model coefficient for Ohio; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "-0.001 × 8246.58 = -8.25; rounded to $-8.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-NH-001", "geography": "New Hampshire", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2021–22", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient -0.003 (not significant); pre-treatment mean $21,413.34; rough coefficient × mean scale $-64.", "estimate_low": "-0.3", "estimate_high": "-0.3", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a -0.3% model coefficient for New Hampshire; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "-0.003 × 21413.34 = -64.24; rounded to $-64.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-IN-001", "geography": "Indiana", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2021–22", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient -0.009 (p<.01); pre-treatment mean $7,673.27; rough coefficient × mean scale $-69.", "estimate_low": "-0.8999999999999999", "estimate_high": "-0.8999999999999999", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a -0.9% model coefficient for Indiana; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "-0.009 × 7673.27 = -69.06; rounded to $-69.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-OK-001", "geography": "Oklahoma", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient -0.017 (p<.001); pre-treatment mean $6,789.62; rough coefficient × mean scale $-115.", "estimate_low": "-1.7000000000000002", "estimate_high": "-1.7000000000000002", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a -1.7% model coefficient for Oklahoma; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "-0.017 × 6789.62 = -115.42; rounded to $-115.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-UT-001", "geography": "Utah", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient -0.008 (p<.05); pre-treatment mean $18,957.59; rough coefficient × mean scale $-152.", "estimate_low": "-0.8", "estimate_high": "-0.8", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a -0.8% model coefficient for Utah; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "-0.008 × 18957.59 = -151.66; rounded to $-152.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-WV-001", "geography": "West Virginia", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient -0.022 (p<.001); pre-treatment mean $6,186.50; rough coefficient × mean scale $-136.", "estimate_low": "-2.1999999999999997", "estimate_high": "-2.1999999999999997", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a -2.2% model coefficient for West Virginia; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "-0.022 × 6186.50 = -136.10; rounded to $-136.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-STATE-FL-001", "geography": "Florida", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansion in Harris–Olivier treatment cohort", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "Study panel through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review state model", "evidence_class": "Class B — multi-state model result", "research_design": "State-specific coefficient within national difference-in-differences model", "metric": "Relative tuition path", "reported_result": "Coefficient -0.034 (p<.001); pre-treatment mean $9,276.77; rough coefficient × mean scale $-315.", "estimate_low": "-3.4000000000000004", "estimate_high": "-3.4000000000000004", "unit": "approximate percent coefficient", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Inverse-hyperbolic-sine regression coefficient", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "34 comparison states in the national study", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "State row within national PSR sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier reported a -3.4% model coefficient for Florida; the row is model-specific and not a stand-alone state study.", "key_limitation": "The national posted-tuition model failed pretrend tests; negative coefficients indicate a lower relative path, not necessarily falling tuition.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "-0.034 × 9276.77 = -315.41; rounded to $-315.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-PSR-OVERLAP-MEDIAN-001", "geography": "Iowa", "program_or_policy": "Data-source validation, not a policy effect", "expansion_year": "Not applicable", "observation_period": "Study collection period", "subgroup": "37 schools with both price sources", "evidence_class": "Methodology context", "research_design": "Matched price-source comparison", "metric": "Median listed tuition difference", "reported_result": "School-published median $7,950; Private School Review median $5,000; difference -$2,950 (-37.1%).", "estimate_low": "-37.1", "estimate_high": "-37.1", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Median", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same 37 schools, two price sources", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "37 Iowa schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "Not applicable", "safe_quoting_language": "Among 37 overlapping Iowa schools, the Private School Review median was 37.1% below the school-published median.", "key_limitation": "One state and one overlapping sample; it does not establish a universal direction of error.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "(5000 - 7950) / 7950 × 100 = -37.1069%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-PSR-OVERLAP-MEAN-001", "geography": "Iowa", "program_or_policy": "Data-source validation, not a policy effect", "expansion_year": "Not applicable", "observation_period": "Study collection period", "subgroup": "37 schools with both price sources", "evidence_class": "Methodology context", "research_design": "Matched price-source comparison", "metric": "Mean listed tuition difference", "reported_result": "School-published mean $8,066; Private School Review mean $6,256; difference -$1,810 (-22.4%).", "estimate_low": "-22.4", "estimate_high": "-22.4", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Mean", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same 37 schools, two price sources", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "37 Iowa schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "Not applicable", "safe_quoting_language": "Among 37 overlapping Iowa schools, the Private School Review mean was 22.4% below the school-published mean.", "key_limitation": "One state and one overlapping sample; the values may reflect grade, parishioner, and update differences.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2024-04", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "(6256 - 8066) / 8066 × 100 = -22.4399%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-HO-PSR-2023-W1-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First ESA", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "Through 2023", "subgroup": "Private School Review school-year sample", "evidence_class": "Class B — model robustness comparison", "research_design": "Iowa–Nebraska difference-in-differences robustness exercise", "metric": "Tuition coefficient", "reported_result": "Estimate -1.3% using Private School Review; 177 observations.", "estimate_low": "-1.3", "estimate_high": "-1.3", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "weighting": "Harris–Olivier weighting option 1", "sample_coverage": "177 school-year observations", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier's Private School Review Iowa–Nebraska robustness result was -1.3% for the through 2023 sample.", "key_limitation": "Not an exact replication of Fontana–Jennings: observational unit, sample, and weighting differ.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-HO-PSR-2023-W2-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First ESA", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "Through 2023", "subgroup": "Private School Review school-year sample", "evidence_class": "Class B — model robustness comparison", "research_design": "Iowa–Nebraska difference-in-differences robustness exercise", "metric": "Tuition coefficient", "reported_result": "Estimate -1.8% using Private School Review; 177 observations.", "estimate_low": "-1.8", "estimate_high": "-1.8", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "weighting": "Harris–Olivier weighting option 2", "sample_coverage": "177 school-year observations", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier's Private School Review Iowa–Nebraska robustness result was -1.8% for the through 2023 sample.", "key_limitation": "Not an exact replication of Fontana–Jennings: observational unit, sample, and weighting differ.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-HO-PSR-2024-LOW-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First ESA", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "Extended through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review school-year sample", "evidence_class": "Class B — model robustness comparison", "research_design": "Iowa–Nebraska difference-in-differences robustness exercise", "metric": "Tuition coefficient", "reported_result": "Estimate +1.4% using Private School Review; 236 observations.", "estimate_low": "1.4", "estimate_high": "1.4", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "weighting": "Harris–Olivier reported lower specification", "sample_coverage": "236 school-year observations", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier's Private School Review Iowa–Nebraska robustness result was +1.4% for the extended through 2024 sample.", "key_limitation": "Not an exact replication of Fontana–Jennings: observational unit, sample, and weighting differ.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-HO-PSR-2024-HIGH-001", "geography": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "program_or_policy": "Iowa Students First ESA", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "Extended through 2024", "subgroup": "Private School Review school-year sample", "evidence_class": "Class B — model robustness comparison", "research_design": "Iowa–Nebraska difference-in-differences robustness exercise", "metric": "Tuition coefficient", "reported_result": "Estimate +2.7% using Private School Review; 236 observations.", "estimate_low": "2.7", "estimate_high": "2.7", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal/current dollars", "statistic_basis": "Regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Iowa vs Nebraska", "weighting": "Harris–Olivier reported upper specification", "sample_coverage": "236 school-year observations", "causal_claim_permitted": "Limited", "safe_quoting_language": "Harris and Olivier's Private School Review Iowa–Nebraska robustness result was +2.7% for the extended through 2024 sample.", "key_limitation": "Not an exact replication of Fontana–Jennings: observational unit, sample, and weighting differ.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "US-HR-RESTRICTED-001", "geography": "United States; earlier state programs", "program_or_policy": "Private-school subsidy programs studied from 1991 to 2009", "expansion_year": "Varied", "observation_period": "1991–2009", "subgroup": "Restricted-eligibility subsidy programs", "evidence_class": "Class E — journal-reviewed historical evidence", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences using nonprofit tax-return data", "metric": "Incidence of subsidy through enrollment versus price", "reported_result": "Enrollment increased while price changed little.", "estimate_low": "", "estimate_high": "", "unit": "qualitative pattern", "price_basis": "Revenue and price measures in source study", "statistic_basis": "Model result", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Programs and schools across states and years", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "Nonprofit-filing private-school sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Yes, within the historical study design", "safe_quoting_language": "Hungerman and Rinz found that enrollment increased while price changed little.", "key_limitation": "Older programs and smaller subsidies; nonprofit filings omit many religious schools; not a current universal-ESA effect size.", "source_title": "Where Does Voucher Funding Go? How Large-Scale Subsidy Programs Affect Private-School Revenue, Enrollment, and Prices", "source_organization": "Journal of Public Economics", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed journal article", "source_date": "2016", "source_url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272716000426", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "US-HR-UNRESTRICTED-001", "geography": "United States; earlier state programs", "program_or_policy": "Private-school subsidy programs studied from 1991 to 2009", "expansion_year": "Varied", "observation_period": "1991–2009", "subgroup": "Broadly available subsidy programs in the historical sample", "evidence_class": "Class E — journal-reviewed historical evidence", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences using nonprofit tax-return data", "metric": "Incidence of subsidy through enrollment versus price", "reported_result": "Prices and per-student revenue increased while enrollment changed little.", "estimate_low": "", "estimate_high": "", "unit": "qualitative pattern", "price_basis": "Revenue and price measures in source study", "statistic_basis": "Model result", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Programs and schools across states and years", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "Nonprofit-filing private-school sample", "causal_claim_permitted": "Yes, within the historical study design", "safe_quoting_language": "Hungerman and Rinz found that prices and per-student revenue increased while enrollment changed little.", "key_limitation": "Older programs and smaller subsidies; nonprofit filings omit many religious schools; not a current universal-ESA effect size.", "source_title": "Where Does Voucher Funding Go? How Large-Scale Subsidy Programs Affect Private-School Revenue, Enrollment, and Prices", "source_organization": "Journal of Public Economics", "source_type": "Peer-reviewed journal article", "source_date": "2016", "source_url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272716000426", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-HECH-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2022 to 2023", "subgroup": "55-school journalism sample", "evidence_class": "Class D — original-data journalism", "research_design": "School-website tuition collection without comparison group", "metric": "Schools crossing tuition-increase thresholds", "reported_result": "Nearly all schools raised tuition; at nearly half, at least some grades rose 10% or more; five schools exceeded 20%.", "estimate_low": "", "estimate_high": "", "unit": "school count / threshold", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Count of schools", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Before/after only", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "55 Arizona private schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In a 55-school Arizona sample, Hechinger found that nearly all raised tuition, nearly half had at least some grades rise 10% or more, and five exceeded 20%.", "key_limitation": "Journalism sample, no counterfactual, and threshold result may vary by grade within a school.", "source_title": "Arizona Gave Families Public Money for Private Schools. Then Private Schools Raised Tuition.", "source_organization": "The Hechinger Report", "source_type": "Original-data journalism", "source_date": "2023-11-27", "source_url": "https://hechingerreport.org/arizona-gave-families-public-money-for-private-schools-then-private-schools-raised-tuition/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-RAND-SCHOOLS-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2022 to 2025", "subgroup": "State private-school market", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive market response", "research_design": "State trend estimate", "metric": "Estimated private-school count", "reported_result": "451 to 515, approximately +14%.", "estimate_low": "14", "estimate_high": "14", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Not applicable", "statistic_basis": "State estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Before/after only", "weighting": "Source-specific", "sample_coverage": "Arizona market estimate", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "RAND reported that Arizona's estimated private-school count rose from 451 to 515 between 2022 and 2025.", "key_limitation": "Descriptive trend; not definitive causal attribution to universal ESAs.", "source_title": "Case Study of Arizona's K–12 Education Savings Account Program: What State Policymakers Can Learn", "source_organization": "RAND Corporation", "source_type": "Institutionally reviewed research report", "source_date": "2025-11-13", "source_url": "https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3400/RRA3431-2/RAND_RRA3431-2.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "AZ-RAND-ENROLL-001", "geography": "Arizona", "program_or_policy": "Universal Empowerment Scholarship Account eligibility", "expansion_year": "2022–23", "observation_period": "2022 to 2025", "subgroup": "State private-school market", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive market response", "research_design": "State trend estimate", "metric": "Estimated private-school enrollment", "reported_result": "66,032 to 77,783, approximately +18%.", "estimate_low": "18", "estimate_high": "18", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Not applicable", "statistic_basis": "State estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Before/after only", "weighting": "Source-specific", "sample_coverage": "Arizona market estimate", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "RAND reported that Arizona's estimated private-school enrollment rose from 66,032 to 77,783 between 2022 and 2025.", "key_limitation": "Descriptive trend; not definitive causal attribution to universal ESAs.", "source_title": "Case Study of Arizona's K–12 Education Savings Account Program: What State Policymakers Can Learn", "source_organization": "RAND Corporation", "source_type": "Institutionally reviewed research report", "source_date": "2025-11-13", "source_url": "https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3400/RRA3431-2/RAND_RRA3431-2.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-TSCI-CF-GAP-NC-Y1-001", "geography": "North Carolina comparison", "program_or_policy": "Opportunity Scholarship universal-access interval", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Carolina Forward selected groups", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Arithmetic difference between published unweighted group means", "metric": "High-voucher NC minus Selected NC non-voucher group", "reported_result": "0.65 percentage point.", "estimate_low": "0.65", "estimate_high": "0.65", "unit": "percentage points", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Difference between unweighted group means", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Selected NC non-voucher group", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "24 high-voucher NC schools and selected comparator group", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In Carolina Forward's selected groups, the first-interval difference versus the selected nc non-voucher group was 0.65 percentage point.", "key_limitation": "Purposive samples, missing observations, unweighted means, outliers, and no causal model.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "6.73 - 6.08 = 0.65 percentage point", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-TSCI-CF-GAP-SC-Y1-001", "geography": "North Carolina comparison", "program_or_policy": "Opportunity Scholarship universal-access interval", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Carolina Forward selected groups", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Arithmetic difference between published unweighted group means", "metric": "High-voucher NC minus Selected South Carolina group", "reported_result": "0.87 percentage point.", "estimate_low": "0.87", "estimate_high": "0.87", "unit": "percentage points", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Difference between unweighted group means", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Selected South Carolina group", "weighting": "Unweighted", "sample_coverage": "24 high-voucher NC schools and selected comparator group", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "In Carolina Forward's selected groups, the first-interval difference versus the selected south carolina group was 0.87 percentage point.", "key_limitation": "Purposive samples, missing observations, unweighted means, outliers, and no causal model.", "source_title": "Vouchers Fuel Private School Tuition Hikes", "source_organization": "Carolina Forward", "source_type": "Advocacy think-tank analysis", "source_date": "2025-03-24", "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/vouchers-fuel-private-school-tuition-hikes/", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "6.73 - 5.86 = 0.87 percentage point", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PSFNC-7000-BAND-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Universal access to Opportunity Scholarships", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "299 schools with two-year data", "evidence_class": "Class D — descriptive distribution shift", "research_design": "Tuition-bracket count comparison", "metric": "Schools charging $7,000–$7,999", "reported_result": "Count rose from 31 to 48 schools: +17, or +54.8%.", "estimate_low": "54.8", "estimate_high": "54.8", "unit": "percent change in school count", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "Count of schools", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Same 299 schools across two years", "weighting": "Unweighted counts", "sample_coverage": "299 schools", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Among 299 North Carolina schools with two-year data, the number charging $7,000–$7,999 rose from 31 to 48, a 54.8% increase.", "key_limitation": "Bracket migration is descriptive; it does not establish motive or each school's exact origin/destination band.", "source_title": "North Carolina's Taxpayer-Funded Vouchers & Private School Tuition Increases", "source_organization": "Public Schools First NC", "source_type": "Advocacy-organization original data brief", "source_date": "2025", "source_url": "https://publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/axpayer-Funded-Vouchers-and-Private-School-Tuition-Increases-fact-sheet.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "(48 - 31) / 31 × 100 = 54.8387%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PUNGO-POSTED-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Opportunity Scholarship expansion context", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Pungo Christian Academy", "evidence_class": "Price-definition case study", "research_design": "Posted-tuition record plus on-the-record school explanation", "metric": "Posted tuition change", "reported_result": "$5,293 to $7,400, a 39.8% posted-tuition increase.", "estimate_low": "39.8", "estimate_high": "39.8", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal posted tuition", "statistic_basis": "School-level before/after", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "No outside control", "weighting": "Not applicable", "sample_coverage": "One school", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Pungo Christian Academy's posted tuition rose from $5,293 to $7,400, a 39.8% increase.", "key_limitation": "The school said previously separate charges were consolidated into tuition, so posted tuition and total cost changed by different percentages.", "source_title": "NC Made Vouchers Open to Any Family, Then Many Private Schools Raised Tuition", "source_organization": "WUNC", "source_type": "On-the-record journalism", "source_date": "2025-06-19", "source_url": "https://www.wunc.org/education/2025-06-19/nc-vouchers-opportunity-scholarships-private-schools-raise-tuition", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NC-PUNGO-TOTAL-001", "geography": "North Carolina", "program_or_policy": "Opportunity Scholarship expansion context", "expansion_year": "2024–25", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Pungo Christian Academy", "evidence_class": "Price-definition case study", "research_design": "On-the-record school explanation", "metric": "School-reported total cost of attendance change", "reported_result": "The school said total cost of attendance rose about 18% after books, technology, and insurance were consolidated into tuition.", "estimate_low": "18", "estimate_high": "18", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "School-reported all-in cost", "statistic_basis": "On-the-record statement", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "No outside control", "weighting": "Not applicable", "sample_coverage": "One school", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Pungo's head of school said total cost of attendance rose about 18%, not the 39.8% change in posted tuition.", "key_limitation": "School-reported explanation; one school; not independently audited total-cost microdata.", "source_title": "NC Made Vouchers Open to Any Family, Then Many Private Schools Raised Tuition", "source_organization": "WUNC", "source_type": "On-the-record journalism", "source_date": "2025-06-19", "source_url": "https://www.wunc.org/education/2025-06-19/nc-vouchers-opportunity-scholarships-private-schools-raise-tuition", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IN-ADMIN-TUITION-001", "geography": "Indiana", "program_or_policy": "Choice Scholarship Program", "expansion_year": "Eligibility expanded before the comparison period", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Program participants", "evidence_class": "Class D — state administrative description", "research_design": "Year-to-year comparison of published participant averages", "metric": "Average reported tuition and fees", "reported_result": "$7,749.24 to $8,368.64: +$619.40 (+7.99%).", "estimate_low": "7.99", "estimate_high": "7.99", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal dollars", "statistic_basis": "Participant average", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Before/after only", "weighting": "Participant weighted", "sample_coverage": "70,095 participants in 2023–24; 76,067 in 2024–25", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Indiana's average reported tuition and fees changed from $7,749.24 to $8,368.64 between 2023–24 and 2024–25.", "key_limitation": "The participant population and school/grade mix changed; the series is not a same-school tuition index.", "source_title": "Choice Scholarship Program Annual Reports, 2023–24 and 2024–25", "source_organization": "Indiana Department of Education", "source_type": "Official state administrative report", "source_date": "2024 and 2025", "source_url": "https://www.in.gov/doe/files/2023-2024-Annual-Choice-Report.pdf | https://www.in.gov/doe/files/2024-2025-Annual-Choice-Report.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "8368.64 - 7749.24 = 619.40; 619.40 / 7749.24 × 100 = 7.99%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IN-ADMIN-AWARD-001", "geography": "Indiana", "program_or_policy": "Choice Scholarship Program", "expansion_year": "Eligibility expanded before the comparison period", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Program participants", "evidence_class": "Class D — state administrative description", "research_design": "Year-to-year comparison of published participant averages", "metric": "Average Choice Scholarship award", "reported_result": "$6,263.66 to $6,536.29: +$272.63 (+4.35%).", "estimate_low": "4.35", "estimate_high": "4.35", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal dollars", "statistic_basis": "Participant average", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Before/after only", "weighting": "Participant weighted", "sample_coverage": "70,095 participants in 2023–24; 76,067 in 2024–25", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Indiana's average choice scholarship award changed from $6,263.66 to $6,536.29 between 2023–24 and 2024–25.", "key_limitation": "The participant population and school/grade mix changed; the series is not a same-school tuition index.", "source_title": "Choice Scholarship Program Annual Reports, 2023–24 and 2024–25", "source_organization": "Indiana Department of Education", "source_type": "Official state administrative report", "source_date": "2024 and 2025", "source_url": "https://www.in.gov/doe/files/2023-2024-Annual-Choice-Report.pdf | https://www.in.gov/doe/files/2024-2025-Annual-Choice-Report.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "6536.29 - 6263.66 = 272.63; 272.63 / 6263.66 × 100 = 4.35%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IN-ADMIN-DIFF-001", "geography": "Indiana", "program_or_policy": "Choice Scholarship Program", "expansion_year": "Eligibility expanded before the comparison period", "observation_period": "2023–24 to 2024–25", "subgroup": "Program participants", "evidence_class": "Class D — state administrative description", "research_design": "Year-to-year comparison of published participant averages", "metric": "Arithmetic difference between the two published averages", "reported_result": "$1,485.58 to $1,832.35: +$346.77 (+23.34%).", "estimate_low": "23.34", "estimate_high": "23.34", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Nominal dollars", "statistic_basis": "Participant average", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Before/after only", "weighting": "Participant weighted", "sample_coverage": "70,095 participants in 2023–24; 76,067 in 2024–25", "causal_claim_permitted": "No", "safe_quoting_language": "Indiana's arithmetic difference between the two published averages changed from $1,485.58 to $1,832.35 between 2023–24 and 2024–25.", "key_limitation": "The participant population and school/grade mix changed; the series is not a same-school tuition index.", "source_title": "Choice Scholarship Program Annual Reports, 2023–24 and 2024–25", "source_organization": "Indiana Department of Education", "source_type": "Official state administrative report", "source_date": "2024 and 2025", "source_url": "https://www.in.gov/doe/files/2023-2024-Annual-Choice-Report.pdf | https://www.in.gov/doe/files/2024-2025-Annual-Choice-Report.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "Tuition average minus award average: 7749.24 - 6263.66 = 1485.58; 8368.64 - 6536.29 = 1832.35; change 346.77 / 1485.58 = 23.34%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-AWARD-SHARE-K-MODEL-001", "geography": "Iowa", "program_or_policy": "Students First ESA", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First program year", "subgroup": "Modeled kindergarten effect", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Published tuition response divided by official ESA amount", "metric": "Tuition response as share of $7,635 award", "reported_result": "$1,280 / $7,635 = 16.8%.", "estimate_low": "16.8", "estimate_high": "16.8", "unit": "percent of award", "price_basis": "Nominal dollars", "statistic_basis": "Arithmetic ratio", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Not a welfare or incidence model", "weighting": "Not applicable", "sample_coverage": "Iowa study inputs", "causal_claim_permitted": "No new causal claim", "safe_quoting_language": "The modeled kindergarten effect equals 16.8% of Iowa's published $7,635 first-year ESA amount.", "key_limitation": "Does not show family net benefit, school rents, aid changes, fees, or later-year response.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa and official Iowa ESA amount", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers and Iowa Department of Education", "source_type": "Academic study plus official program record", "source_date": "2024 / 2023", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf | https://educate.iowa.gov/media/8596/download?inline=", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "1280 / 7635 × 100 = 16.7649%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-AWARD-SHARE-G1-12-MODEL-001", "geography": "Iowa", "program_or_policy": "Students First ESA", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First program year", "subgroup": "Modeled grades 1–12 effect", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Published tuition response divided by official ESA amount", "metric": "Tuition response as share of $7,635 award", "reported_result": "$830 / $7,635 = 10.9%.", "estimate_low": "10.9", "estimate_high": "10.9", "unit": "percent of award", "price_basis": "Nominal dollars", "statistic_basis": "Arithmetic ratio", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Not a welfare or incidence model", "weighting": "Not applicable", "sample_coverage": "Iowa study inputs", "causal_claim_permitted": "No new causal claim", "safe_quoting_language": "The modeled grades 1–12 effect equals 10.9% of Iowa's published $7,635 first-year ESA amount.", "key_limitation": "Does not show family net benefit, school rents, aid changes, fees, or later-year response.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa and official Iowa ESA amount", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers and Iowa Department of Education", "source_type": "Academic study plus official program record", "source_date": "2024 / 2023", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf | https://educate.iowa.gov/media/8596/download?inline=", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "830 / 7635 × 100 = 10.8710%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-AWARD-SHARE-K-RAW-001", "geography": "Iowa", "program_or_policy": "Students First ESA", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First program year", "subgroup": "Raw Iowa–Nebraska kindergarten difference", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Published tuition response divided by official ESA amount", "metric": "Tuition response as share of $7,635 award", "reported_result": "$1,458 / $7,635 = 19.1%.", "estimate_low": "19.1", "estimate_high": "19.1", "unit": "percent of award", "price_basis": "Nominal dollars", "statistic_basis": "Arithmetic ratio", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Not a welfare or incidence model", "weighting": "Not applicable", "sample_coverage": "Iowa study inputs", "causal_claim_permitted": "No new causal claim", "safe_quoting_language": "The raw iowa–nebraska kindergarten difference equals 19.1% of Iowa's published $7,635 first-year ESA amount.", "key_limitation": "Does not show family net benefit, school rents, aid changes, fees, or later-year response.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa and official Iowa ESA amount", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers and Iowa Department of Education", "source_type": "Academic study plus official program record", "source_date": "2024 / 2023", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf | https://educate.iowa.gov/media/8596/download?inline=", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "1458 / 7635 × 100 = 19.0963%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "IA-AWARD-SHARE-G1-12-RAW-001", "geography": "Iowa", "program_or_policy": "Students First ESA", "expansion_year": "2023–24", "observation_period": "First program year", "subgroup": "Raw Iowa–Nebraska grades 1–12 difference", "evidence_class": "The School Choice Index original calculation", "research_design": "Published tuition response divided by official ESA amount", "metric": "Tuition response as share of $7,635 award", "reported_result": "$768 / $7,635 = 10.1%.", "estimate_low": "10.1", "estimate_high": "10.1", "unit": "percent of award", "price_basis": "Nominal dollars", "statistic_basis": "Arithmetic ratio", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Not a welfare or incidence model", "weighting": "Not applicable", "sample_coverage": "Iowa study inputs", "causal_claim_permitted": "No new causal claim", "safe_quoting_language": "The raw iowa–nebraska grades 1–12 difference equals 10.1% of Iowa's published $7,635 first-year ESA amount.", "key_limitation": "Does not show family net benefit, school rents, aid changes, fees, or later-year response.", "source_title": "The Effect of Taxpayer-Funded Education Savings Accounts on Private School Tuition: Evidence from Iowa and official Iowa ESA amount", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers and Iowa Department of Education", "source_type": "Academic study plus official program record", "source_date": "2024 / 2023", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai24-949.pdf | https://educate.iowa.gov/media/8596/download?inline=", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "768 / 7635 × 100 = 10.0589%.", "tsci_original_calculation": "Yes", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-AID-SHARE-001", "geography": "United States; national PSR sample", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "Short run", "subgroup": "Private School Review financial-aid fields", "evidence_class": "Class B — model result with failed pretrend test", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences specification", "metric": "Share of students receiving financial aid", "reported_result": "Approximately +0.9 percentage points.", "estimate_low": "0.9", "estimate_high": "0.9", "unit": "percentage points", "price_basis": "Not applicable", "statistic_basis": "Regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Treated vs comparison states", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "Private School Review subsample", "causal_claim_permitted": "No clean causal claim", "safe_quoting_language": "One Harris–Olivier specification estimated an approximately 0.9 percentage points increase in share of students receiving financial aid, but its pretrend test failed.", "key_limitation": "Failed pretrend test and selective commercial-profile sample.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" }, { "evidence_id": "NAT-AID-AMOUNT-001", "geography": "United States; national PSR sample", "program_or_policy": "Recent broad or universal voucher/ESA expansions", "expansion_year": "2021–2024", "observation_period": "Short run", "subgroup": "Private School Review financial-aid fields", "evidence_class": "Class B — model result with failed pretrend test", "research_design": "Difference-in-differences specification", "metric": "Average financial-aid amount", "reported_result": "Approximately +2.5 percent.", "estimate_low": "2.5", "estimate_high": "2.5", "unit": "percent", "price_basis": "Not applicable", "statistic_basis": "Regression estimate", "comparison_or_counterfactual": "Treated vs comparison states", "weighting": "Study-specific", "sample_coverage": "Private School Review subsample", "causal_claim_permitted": "No clean causal claim", "safe_quoting_language": "One Harris–Olivier specification estimated an approximately 2.5 percent increase in average financial-aid amount, but its pretrend test failed.", "key_limitation": "Failed pretrend test and selective commercial-profile sample.", "source_title": "The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis", "source_organization": "EdWorkingPapers / REACH", "source_type": "Academic working paper", "source_date": "2025-09-12", "source_url": "https://edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai25-1293.pdf", "last_verified": "2026-08-01", "calculation_note": "", "tsci_original_calculation": "No", "publish_status": "Publishable with stated qualifier" } ] }